Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 81665.341303 86218.679812 90771.909802 95663.432832 100766.408157 105929.694160 111545.604772
2025-05-11 73713.363150 80643.416759 87769.037653 95633.270895 104059.049834 112805.406445 122560.639520
2025-05-18 68203.563737 76749.621961 85731.676510 95855.054075 106926.125685 118644.590935 131964.763381
2025-05-25 63846.826938 73577.875761 83995.509302 95943.837742 109233.762510 123526.868320 140025.299197
2025-06-01 60951.311695 71705.987901 83404.023368 97023.243049 112391.281340 129143.308045 148731.002525
2025-06-08 57654.128755 69136.719421 81811.179731 96771.070795 113874.647929 132746.966696 155071.374833
2025-06-15 55813.408037 68078.557203 81794.194732 98180.035986 117130.316219 138263.427981 163514.910826
2025-06-22 53814.855874 66707.974106 81304.154834 98941.166447 119558.408616 142778.379045 170782.772793
2025-06-29 51655.557110 65032.245429 80355.391334 99072.485508 121176.164573 146303.179368 176873.899403
2025-07-06 49651.304423 63442.429171 79418.700717 99135.025399 122643.401955 149602.071698 182670.865076
2025-07-13 48726.940056 63095.360100 79908.556162 100848.477057 126029.396581 155130.162740 191084.722741
2025-07-20 47730.804791 62606.231777 80182.340258 102265.718121 129039.026627 160208.887616 198984.418372
2025-07-27 46371.456148 61638.618377 79859.002026 102959.579475 131200.679953 164327.269758 205824.671656
2025-08-03 44720.707085 60250.214440 78971.661869 102923.736495 132451.050682 167346.520308 211362.786648
2025-08-10 43307.956767 59107.243644 78339.144853 103158.291325 133998.169009 170704.224234 217307.431573
2025-08-17 41915.486716 57938.120663 77627.481927 103252.337973 135339.525505 173793.071541 222923.185332
2025-08-24 41098.975709 57475.491827 77774.914755 104397.794015 137968.717547 178451.089338 230468.061720
2025-08-31 39684.833680 56188.215248 76833.379279 104130.186183 138804.756173 180890.836943 235290.245725
2025-09-07 39133.751365 56009.471412 77289.810876 105625.246272 141848.714947 186062.132339 243503.726704
2025-09-14 38314.236005 55445.364739 77224.643367 106432.786403 144013.274647 190143.882598 250385.481677
2025-09-21 37251.488242 54521.785503 76662.091156 106572.105563 145308.689836 193132.678347 255911.643210
2025-09-28 36209.558748 53593.596706 76063.939805 106638.454752 146490.585212 195968.913551 261249.767247
2025-10-05 35931.029069 53691.152147 76808.852645 108456.092924 149930.758474 201667.829374 270220.533655